Shakopee, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

439
FXUS63 KMPX 070306
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
906 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Band of freezing rain to develop late this afternoon and
  evening across western MN that will transition to snow
  overnight. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inches
  possible across west central MN.

- Another wintry system, producing a mixture of rain and snow,
  is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Other than a brief cool-down Saturday, temepratures will
  remain well above normal through Monday, with temperatures
  closer to normal for Tuesday through the rest of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Regional radar displays showers and thunderstorms lifting north
through Iowa into southern MN and a band of mixed wintry
precipitation extending from northern NE to eastern SD to
central MN. Convective cores have produced several instances of
pea-sized hail over the past few hours and it`s possible we may
see a few more reports as the convection lifts north into
southern MN. On the other hand, freezing rain has been the
dominant p-type across western MN this evening due to the
advection of sub-freezing temperatures in the boundary layer.
RAP mesoanalysis indicates that the stout mid-level warm nose
(850mb T`s of approximately +5) remains in place, which will
keep the freezing rain threat in place overnight. Travel
conditions have become quite hazardous across western MN, where
MnDOT reports a coating of ice on roadways. These conditions are
expected to spread east, as the deformation band of wintry
precipitation (mostly freezing rain and snow) moves across south
central MN and into western WI. No changes have been made to
the Winter Weather Advisory and it`s likely that slick
conditions will persist through daybreak Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

There are some impressive temperature gradients across the central
CONUS today associated with the low over central KS. The warm front
with the low extends up to about the I-80 corridor in Iowa. To the
north, there`s a northern stream cold front moving across western
MN. We`re seeing some 70s all the way up into southern Iowa within
the warm sector, while behind the cold front, temperatures in the
teens and 20s in the Dakotas have sent temperatures in western MN
down into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Through tonight, the surface
low will track across central Iowa and across the southeast corner
of MN on its way to northeast WI Saturday morning. With this track,
the MPX area will remain within the cold sector of this system.
Therefore when it comes to hazardous weather, we won`t have to worry
about the severe side of things, instead, we can place our focus on
the cold side.

For the rest of tonight, there`s a lot of moving parts. For
temperatures, the CAA moving into western MN is shallow and we`re
developing fairly classic freezing rain soundings where temperatures
have fallen below freezing at the surface. These freezing rain
profiles will remain in place through roughly 3z (10pm), with the
warm nose finally cooling down after that, with a wintry p-type
changing from freezing rain over to snow. The big question with this
environment is when does the precipitation start falling. The
problem we have now for precipitation is we have very dry mid/upper
level air sitting above our stratus, but as the surface low moves
toward central Iowa this evening, our vertical moisture profile will
start to fill in, with a pretty rapid expansion in precip expected
across the area between 5pm and 7pm. It continues to look like we`ll
have a band of freezing rain out in western MN that will be able to
pickup upwards of 0.2" inches of ice accumulation from roughly
Redwood Falls back to the SoDak border. Though this could move up if
freezing rain starts earlier, or drop if it starts later. Overnight,
a southwest to northeast oriented deformation band of precip will
slowly move across the area from west to east, with early risers
Saturday morning in the Twin Cities likely getting treated to some
falling snow. Saturday will see quite the spread in temperatures
across the area, with clouds making it a struggle for eastern MN and
western WI to get out of the 30s, while sun in western MN will
likely allow highs in west central MN to reach the low to mid 50s.

Sunday will see our warmest push of air during this stretch, with
highs in the 60s expected pretty much area wide. The next front will
push through the area on Monday, how quickly it does so will
determine how warm we get on Monday, though forecast highs for
Monday have trended down some. For the rest of the week, we`ll have
a strong jet overhead, with a strong thermal gradient across the
northern US. With this jet overhead, we`ll see numerous waves sneak
across the northern CONUS. The first comes Tuesday, which is
trending toward central/northern MN, with another for the end of the
week. Precipitation for the most part will be on the cool side of
the thermal gradient, which means where precip falls, it will most
likely fall as snow. As for temperatures next week, we have seen the
EPS slowly modify on the cold, with highs expected to be near
normal, with a warmer day possible Thursday depending on which side
of the Thursday night wave we end up on. As for the cold, that has
been pushed out into next weekend, with a proper spring warmup
possibly lurking for the last week of March.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Widespread showers have developed across the area, which have
helped scouring out most of the LIFR ceilings & visibility
across the area this afternoon. Mainly MVFR visibility is
expected with these showers, but ceilings should remain solidly
IFR if not drop below LIFR thresholds briefly. Temperatures are
already cold enough for the rain to transition to freezing rain
across far-western Minnesota, & this precipitation transition
will continue to spread eastwards through the evening. 0.1-0.2"
of ice accumulation is forecast at AXN/RWF/STC & a glaze of ice
is possible at MKT/MSP/RNH where the duration of -FZRA or
-FZRASN should only be an hour or less. The rain & freezing rain
 transitions over to snow overnight, where visibility will drop
 to around 1SM for a few hours, with snowfall rates around
 0.5"/hr resulting in a slushy inch or so of accumulation by the
 morning. Visibility & ceilings improve as the snow ends from
 west to east during the early to mid morning, but mVFR ceilings
 look like they will hold on later into the afternoon.

Southeast winds around 5-10 mph become northwesterly as the cold
air arrives this afternoon, with gusts around 20 kts
persisting into tomorrow morning.


KMSP...Scattered rain showers will be on & off through the
evening with predominately MVFR visibility expected in addition
to persistent IFR ceilings. A rumble or two of thunder can`t be
ruled out with any of the showers but the probability is too
low to include in the TAF. The rain is expected to change over
to a wintry mix of snow & rain, or possible freezing rain during
the overnight hours (2-3 AM), but then quickly change over to
all snow for a few hours during the early morning hours. The
icing potential at MSP looks low for now, but less than an hour
of
-FZRA before the changeover to snow could still create a very
 light glaze on untreated surfaces. The snow will only last for
 2-3 hours, but there could be an hour or two of visibility down
 to 1SM or less along with snowfall rates of 0.5-0.75"/hr. The
 snow exits off to the east by 6-7 AM, with ceilings slowly
 improving through the morning & eventually scattering out
 during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
TUE...MVFR likely. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for Chippewa-
     Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for Benton-
     Kandiyohi-Meeker-Morrison-Redwood-Renville-Stearns-Todd.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Faribault-Isanti-Kanabec-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs-
     Nicollet-Sherburne-Sibley-Watonwan-Wright.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Strus
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...ETA